The Influence of Ron Paul: Loud Bang or Flash in the Pan?

Abstract

The 2012 primary season has been one of the most volatile in recent memory, with the Republican Party struggling to settle on a candidate. The campaign has also vaulted some previously obscure politicians to national prominence, only to relegate them again to obscurity. Ron Paul has demonstrated perhaps the most dramatic transformation, from a lone voice who was once largely ignored to one of the last four candidates for the nomination, who has performed quite creditably in several primaries. In this article, I examine how much influence Paul is going to have in the short term, up to and including the Republican National Convention. I also examine how lasting his influence will be over the long term, and whether or not he will mount a third-party bid in 2012.